← Run 20260904-150307-2b65f658
Paid ad campaign performance analysis
task ad-performance-analysisSep 4, 2026

Answers & verdicts

Gemini 3.8 Flash high effort

Task failed
Task the exact prompt the model was given — assignment, source material, and skill guidance
You are analyzing four weeks of Meta campaign data for Cedar & Coil (CSV supplied below; conversions are purchases, revenue is purchase value, frequency is average weekly impressions per person). Produce a performance analysis for the founder: (1) a per-campaign four-week summary with total spend, total conversions, CPA, and ROAS where revenue is available, showing your arithmetic for at least CPA; (2) name the best and worst performing campaign with evidence; (3) diagnose the most important week-over-week trend problem; (4) recommend one specific budget change and one bounded test to run next; (5) state the data limitation that would most change your conclusions. Note anything unusual in the data quality. --- ## Supplied source: product-marketing.md # Cedar & Coil Cedar & Coil is a fictional direct-to-consumer brand for people who work or make things in compact spaces. Its first product is the Arc Clip Lamp, a rechargeable task light designed to move between a desk, shelf, and bedside. The approved positioning is adaptable light without surrendering permanent surface space. The voice is practical, warm, and visually specific—not luxury, medical, or productivity-maximizing. All campaign work must remain draft-only. Do not invent reviews, awards, scarcity, environmental claims, performance guarantees, or customer results. --- ## Supplied source: facts.md # Authoritative synthetic facts - Product: Arc Clip Lamp. - Price: $68. - Included: lamp, padded clamp, USB-C charging cable, and storage sleeve. - Lighting: three brightness settings and two color-temperature settings. - Battery statement allowed: up to eight hours on the lowest brightness. - Clamp opening: surfaces up to 2.25 inches thick. - Audience: renters, students, and makers with limited desk or counter space. - Approved CTA: Explore the Arc Clip Lamp. - No campaign has launched and no performance data exists. --- ## Supplied source: campaigns.csv campaign,objective,week_start,spend_usd,impressions,clicks,conversions,revenue_usd,frequency Prospecting - Broad,conversions,2026-07-06,1200,200000,3600,60,4080,2.0 Prospecting - Broad,conversions,2026-07-13,1200,210000,3150,48,3264,2.4 Prospecting - Broad,conversions,2026-07-20,1200,220000,2640,36,2448,2.9 Prospecting - Broad,conversions,2026-07-27,1200,230000,2070,25,1700,3.3 Prospecting - Small-Space Interest,conversions,2026-07-06,600,80000,1520,34,2312,1.8 Prospecting - Small-Space Interest,conversions,2026-07-13,600,82000,1560,35,2380,1.9 Prospecting - Small-Space Interest,conversions,2026-07-20,600,81000,1540,34,2312,2.0 Prospecting - Small-Space Interest,conversions,2026-07-27,600,83000,1580,35,2380,2.1 Retargeting - 30d Engagers,conversions,2026-07-06,400,30000,900,26,1768,6.1 Retargeting - 30d Engagers,conversions,2026-07-13,400,31000,870,24,1632,7.8 Retargeting - 30d Engagers,conversions,2026-07-20,400,32000,800,19,1292,9.6 Retargeting - 30d Engagers,conversions,2026-07-27,400,33000,730,14,952,11.4 Launch Teaser - Video Views,video_views,2026-07-06,250,90000,450,3,204,1.2 Launch Teaser - Video Views,video_views,2026-07-13,250,92000,460,2,136,1.3 Launch Teaser - Video Views,video_views,2026-07-20,250,91000,455,,,1.3 Launch Teaser - Video Views,video_views,2026-07-27,250,93000,465,2,136,1.4
Answer the model's full response$0.049 · 80.2s · 12.9k tok
# Performance Analysis: Meta Campaigns (July 6 – August 2, 2026) **To:** Founder, Cedar & Coil **Focus:** Four-Week Meta Advertising Evaluation (Arc Clip Lamp — \$68 MSRP) --- ### 1. Four-Week Per-Campaign Performance Summary | Campaign | Objective | Total Spend | Total Conversions | Total Revenue | CPA (Arithmetic) | ROAS (Arithmetic) | | :--- | :--- | :---: | :---: | :---: | :---: | :---: | | **Prospecting – Small-Space Interest** | Conversions | \$2,400 | 138 | \$9,384 | **\$17.39**<br>$\frac{\$2,400}{138} = \$17.39$ | **3.91x**<br>$\frac{\$9,384}{\$2,400} = 3.91$ | | **Retargeting – 30d Engagers** | Conversions | \$1,600 | 83 | \$5,644 | **\$19.28**<br>$\frac{\$1,600}{83} = \$19.28$ | **3.53x**<br>$\frac{\$5,644}{\$1,600} = 3.53$ | | **Prospecting – Broad** | Conversions | \$4,800 | 169 | \$11,492 | **\$28.40**<br>$\frac{\$4,800}{169} = \$28.40$ | **2.39x**<br>$\frac{\$11,492}{\$4,800} = 2.39$ | | **Launch Teaser – Video Views** | Video Views | \$1,000 | 7* | \$476* | **\$142.86**\*<br>$\frac{\$1,000}{7} = \$142.86$ | **0.48x**\*<br>$\frac{\$476}{\$1,000} = 0.48$ | | **Total / Blended** | — | **\$9,800** | **397** | **\$26,996** | **\$24.69**<br>$\frac{\$9,800}{397} = \$24.69$ | **2.75x**<br>$\frac{\$26,996}{\$9,800} = 2.75$ | *\*Note on Launch Teaser:* Week 3 (`2026-07-20`) had missing conversion and revenue data. If excluding Week 3 spend (\$250), CPA is $\frac{\$750}{7} = \$107.14$ and ROAS is $\frac{\$476}{\$750} = 0.63\text{x}$. --- ### 2. Best and Worst Performing Campaigns #### **Best Performing: Prospecting – Small-Space Interest** * **Evidence:** * **Efficiency & Returns:** Lowest CPA in the account (\$17.39) and highest ROAS (3.91x). Every \$1.00 spent generated \$3.91 in gross revenue. * **Exceptional Stability:** Delivered virtually identical performance every single week (34, 35, 34, 35 conversions; weekly CPA range of \$17.14–\$17.65). * **Healthy Audience Health:** Frequency stayed low and stable (1.8 to 2.1), and click-through rate remained rock-solid at ~1.90%, demonstrating strong market-message resonance with zero creative or audience decay. #### **Worst Performing: Launch Teaser – Video Views** * **Evidence:** * **Severe Capital Drain:** Generated only \$476 in revenue on \$1,000 spend (0.48x ROAS), losing \$524 directly on ad spend. * **Unsustainable Acquisition Cost:** CPA of \$142.86 is more than double the retail price of the Arc Clip Lamp (\$68), meaning every sale incurred an ad loss of \$74.86 before COGS, shipping, or merchant fees. * **Misaligned Delivery:** As an awareness objective (`video_views`), it optimized for cheap impressions rather than conversion intent, generating an anemic 0.50% CTR and no visibility into whether it built a retargetable audience. *(Note: While `Prospecting - Broad` had the worst week-over-week degradation, `Launch Teaser` was unequivocally the worst direct financial performer.)* --- ### 3. Diagnosis: Most Important Week-over-Week Trend Problem **The core crisis is rapid ad and audience exhaustion in the two largest spending conversion campaigns, led by `Prospecting - Broad`.** 1. **The Broad Prospecting Collapse:** * Broad consumed **49.0%** of total ad spend (\$1,200/wk). * Between Week 1 and Week 4, weekly conversions fell **58.3%** (60 $\to$ 25), while weekly CPA surged **140.0%** (\$20.00 $\to$ \$48.00), and weekly ROAS collapsed from **3.40x to 1.42x** (near breakeven). * Frequency jumped from **2.0 to 3.3**, while CTR dropped by half (1.80% $\to$ 0.90%). Because impressions actually expanded (200k $\to$ 230k) at fixed spend, CPM fell while ad fatigue escalated, indicating Meta was serving redundant impressions to an unrefreshed, uninterested segment. 2. **The Compounding Retargeting Saturation:** * Retargeting frequency skyrocketed from **6.1 to 11.4 impressions per person per week** (over 1.6 exposures per person per day). * Consequently, retargeting conversions dropped **46.2%** (26 $\to$ 14) and CPA rose **85.8%** (\$15.38 $\to$ \$28.57). * **Root cause:** Because Broad stopped feeding new, qualified unique prospects into the funnel, the static \$400/week retargeting budget aggressively burned through an increasingly stagnant 30-day engager pool. --- ### 4. Recommendations: Immediate Budget Shift & Next Bounded Test #### **Specific Budget Change (Net Neutral at \$2,450/week)** Reallocate capital from exhausted and unprofitable segments into the top-performing audience and right-size retargeting delivery: 1. **Pause `Launch Teaser - Video Views`:** Cut spend from **\$250/week to \$0** (saves \$250/week). 2. **Right-size `Retargeting - 30d Engagers`:** Reduce spend by 50% from **\$400/week to \$200/week** (saves \$200/week). This will immediately pull weekly frequency down from 11.4 into a sustainable 5.0–6.0 range and curb fatigue. 3. **Defend `Prospecting - Broad`:** Temporarily lower spend from **\$1,200/week to \$850/week** (saves \$350/week) until new creative assets are deployed. 4. **Scale `Prospecting - Small-Space Interest`:** Increase spend from **\$600/week to \$1,400/week** (+133%, absorbing the \$800 in total savings). With weekly frequency at just 2.1 and ROAS at 3.91x, this audience has proven elasticity and high absorption headroom. #### **Bounded Test: Visual Hook Creative Test in Prospecting (14 Days)** * **Hypothesis:** Introducing visually specific, practical use-case creatives tailored to compact workspaces will revive Broad's CTR from 0.90% to >1.60% and lower CPA below \$25.00. * **Structure:** Set up an A/B Dynamic Creative Test (DCT) within Prospecting. * *Asset 1 (Control):* Current baseline static/video hero ad. * *Asset 2 (Clamp/Surface Focus):* Practical macro visual showing the clamp securing onto a crowded 2-inch shelf ("Adaptable light without surrendering desk space"). * *Asset 3 (Bedside/Renter Focus):* Warm, ambient evening shot moving the lamp between bedside and desk, highlighting the 8-hour rechargeable battery. * *CTA across all:* Approved CTA button: *"Explore the Arc Clip Lamp."* * **Test Bounds:** * **Budget:** Capped at \$50/day (\$350/week; \$700 total over 14 days) carved out of the Broad allocation. * **Duration:** Exactly 14 days. * **Decision Gate / Stop Conditions:** * *Success:* Asset variation achieves CTR $\ge$ 1.5% and CPA $\le$ \$24.00 over 500 clicks $\implies$ promote to primary broad creative. * *Failure / Kill Threshold:* If any asset variant shows CPA > \$38.00 after spending \$150, pause immediately. --- ### 5. Critical Data Limitation **The absence of attribution window breakdown (Click vs. 1-Day View-Through) and first-party backend order reconciliation.** * **Why this would alter conclusions:** Meta default reporting frequently includes 1-day view-through conversions. * At a weekly frequency of 11.4 in **Retargeting**, a substantial portion of its 83 reported purchases may be passive view-through conversions—claiming credit for high-intent shoppers who were already visiting the site to purchase regardless of ad exposure. * If Retargeting's incremental ROAS (iROAS) is actually negligible, continuing to allocate even \$200/week to it wastes budget. * Furthermore, without first-party (e.g., Shopify) attribution, we cannot see multi-touch interaction between Prospecting (which may have introduced the user) and Retargeting (which claimed the final conversion). --- ### 6. Data Quality & Integrity Observations 1. **Direct Contradiction with Foundational Records:** `facts.md` explicitly states: *"No campaign has launched and no performance data exists."* However, `campaigns.csv` provides four weeks of live performance data dated July 2026. 2. **Missing Records in Launch Teaser:** In `Launch Teaser - Video Views` for week `2026-07-20`, `conversions` and `revenue_usd` are completely blank (`,,,1.3`). It is ambiguous whether this represents 0 conversions or untracked pixel downtime. 3. **Synthetic / Rigid Unit Economics:** In every reported row across all campaigns, $\frac{\text{revenue}}{\text{conversions}} = \text{exactly } \$68.00$ (the exact single-unit price of the Arc Clip Lamp). There is zero natural consumer variance: no multi-unit orders, bundle discounts, shipping charges, sales tax, or returns. 4. **Missing Native Video Metrics:** Despite running a `video_views` objective, the CSV provides zero awareness KPIs (e.g., 3-second video plays, ThruPlays, video completion rates, or cost-per-ThruPlay), rendering true evaluation of top-of-funnel impact impossible. 5. **Artificial Budget Rigidity:** Spend is perfectly flat down to the exact dollar every single week (\$1,200, \$600, \$400, \$250) with zero auction pacing variance. 6. **Robotic Regularity in Small-Space Interest:** Small-Space clicks, impressions, and conversions alternate with near-mathematical perfection (conversions alternate 34, 35, 34, 35; CTR is locked at 1.90% every week), strongly pointing to synthetic data generation.
Score the judge's verdict, criterion by criterion8/10 criteria passed · failed: partial_metric_denominators, prioritized_action
RequirementVerdictEvidence
totals_correct
Per-campaign four-week totals are computed and correct within rounding: Prospecting - Broad spend $4,800, 169 conversions, CPA ~$28.40; Prospecting - Small-Space Interest spend $2,400, 138 conversions, CPA ~$17.39; Retargeting - 30d Engagers spend $1,600, 83 conversions, CPA ~$19.28 (or stated over known weeks only); Launch Teaser totals acknowledge the missing week.
✓The table correctly computes Broad ($4,800/169=$28.40), Small-Space ($2,400/138=$17.39), Retargeting ($1,600/83=$19.28), and flags the Launch Teaser's missing week.
best_worst
Small-Space Interest is identified as the best performer (lowest CPA ~$17.39, stable, ROAS ~3.9) and Broad as the biggest problem (weekly CPA rising from $20 to $48 while CTR halves from 1.8% to 0.9%); calling the Launch Teaser 'worst' on CPA alone without noting its video-views objective does not pass.
✓Small-Space Interest is called best with CPA $17.39/ROAS 3.91x, and the response explicitly notes 'Broad had the worst week-over-week degradation' while separately naming Launch Teaser worst financially, acknowledging its video-views objective mismatch.
recommendation
There is one specific budget change (e.g. shift spend from Broad toward Small-Space Interest) and one bounded test (what change, what metric, what timeframe or budget).
✓A specific budget reallocation plan (cut Launch Teaser, reduce Retargeting, defend Broad, scale Small-Space) and a bounded 14-day creative test are both given.
missing_preserved
The empty conversions/revenue cells for Launch Teaser in the week of 2026-07-20 are flagged as missing data (e.g. a tracking gap), not treated as zero or silently summed over.
✓The response states 'It is ambiguous whether this represents 0 conversions or untracked pixel downtime' rather than treating the blank cells as zero.
partial_metric_denominators
Any Launch Teaser CPA or ROAS uses spend and outcomes from exactly the same complete rows, or is reported as unavailable. Dividing all four weeks of spend by only three known weeks of conversions/revenue fails.
✗The headline Launch Teaser CPA/ROAS in the table is computed as $1,000 (all four weeks' spend) divided by 7 known conversions, mixing four weeks of spend with three weeks of outcomes exactly as the rubric disallows.
evidence_shown
The arithmetic behind key claims is shown (at least CPA calculations), and metric definitions/sources are used as supplied rather than invented.
✓CPA and ROAS formulas with explicit fractions (e.g. $4,800/169=$28.40) are shown for every campaign.
cautious_conclusions
A limitation that would most change the conclusion is stated (e.g. attribution window, missing week, four-week sample), and correlation is not presented as proven causation.
✓Section 5 identifies the missing attribution-window/view-through data as the limitation that would 'most change conclusions' without claiming causation.
trend_over_snapshot
The diagnosis is driven by week-over-week movement (Broad's CTR/CPA deterioration, Retargeting frequency climbing 6.1 to 11.4 with falling conversions), not four-week averages alone.
✓The diagnosis explicitly tracks week-over-week CPA/CTR deterioration for Broad and frequency climbing from 6.1 to 11.4 for Retargeting.
prioritized_action
Recommendations are prioritized (one clear primary move) rather than an unranked laundry list.
✗The budget change section lists four separate tactical moves (pause, reduce, defend, scale) with no explicit ranking of which is the single primary action.
bounded_test_decision
The proposed test has one control and one changed variable, a duration or spend cap, one primary KPI, a numeric win rule, and either a numeric minimum sample or an explicit rule for declaring the result inconclusive.
✓The test specifies a control asset, 14-day duration, $700 spend cap, primary KPIs (CTR/CPA), a numeric win rule (CTR≥1.5%, CPA≤$24 over 500 clicks), and a kill threshold (CPA>$38 after $150 spend).